The risk management of natural hazards is a complex issue often due to very significant potentialconsequences and substantial uncertainties. A framework for risk based decision making in the field ofengineering is first described in this paper. This framework is then applied for the risk assessment of volcanichazards. Towards this end, aspects related to the modeling of the hazard process due to volcanoes are described.A system of classification of structures and identification of different building characteristics that could be usedfor volcanic vulnerability and risk assessment is then proposed. This is followed by a discussion on the fragilityand vulnerability modeling of structures. Finally, general issues concerning the evaluation of risks and theirtreatment and communication are discussed.
With increasing income and opportunities for entertainment, the demand for tourist visits to the beaches will increase. In addition, the expected warming weather will lead to the extension of the summer touristic season, which ultimately will increase demand for touristic activities. On the other hand, coastal erosion and sea level rise will affect the quality of beaches. The impact of these events on tourist visits in the country depends on the level of destruction of the area and the availability of substitute areas for tourism in Albania or in the region. Studies predict that the coastal area of Albania will be seriously affected by climate change, and the beaches of ShĂ«ngjini and Tale on the northern coastal area of Albania will be partially destroyed in 2080. This paper will offer a calculation of tourism values in ShĂ«ngjini beach using a zonal travel cost method. This method of environmental valuation is based on choices of individuals to spend their holidays in a given area, compared to the possibility to choose another area, or to do other activities such as going to work. In addition, travel cost method is the most used in the literature to assess the benefits of coastal tourist areas. The result of the assessment will be the compilation of a demand curve for tourism in ShĂ«ngjini beach. Knowing this value will give a strong support to all projects or activities undertaken by public authorities for the protection and further development of the area in the future.
This is the final report of the project “Ascending evacuation in long stairways: Physical exertion, walking speed and behaviour”. This project investigated the effects of fatigue on walking speeds, physiological performance and behaviours in case of long ascending evacuation. The report includes a literature review on, at the time when the project began, existing material on ascending evacuation on long stairs and escalators. Experimental research was conducted and the results are presented in the report...
This paper presents recent developments on methodologies for the assessment andmanagement of risks due to natural hazards. First a review is made on system characteristicscommonly applied in the field of natural hazards risk management at large scale. Thereafter, ageneral model framework is proposed for the representation of consequences and knowledgebased on recent developments within the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Theproposed framework explicitly accounts for two significant characteristics of systems, namelyindicators and conditional dependencies. This in turn suggests that when using this framework aBayesian statistical framework for risk assessment is advantageous and it is shown how genericBayesian risk models may be formulated to facilitate the analysis using Bayesian ProbabilisticNets (BPN’s). It is outlined and discussed how the proposed model framework may be applied forrisk management problems considering natural hazards at large geographical scales. Finally anexample is provided on the application of the framework based on recent and ongoing research onmanagement of risks due to earthquakes.
This report focuses on the use of egress models to assess the optimal strategy in the case of total evacuation in high-rise buildings. A model case study made of two identical twin towers linked with two sky-bridges at different heights has been simulated. The towers are 50 floor high-rise buildings including both vertical and horizontal egress components, namely stairs, occupant evacuation elevators (OEEs), service elevators, transfer floors and sky-bridges. The total evacuation of the single tower has been simulated employing seven possible strategies....
The purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the main impacts of climate change in Albania. More specifically the paper will try to analyze the public response toward these new challenges. This analysis will be preceded by a brief review of the international literature regarding climate change consequences. In addition, the paper will discuss public perception and awareness toward climate change. This discussion will be based on a survey which has involved a wide range of population. The main results of the survey show that the level of awareness of the study group (which consisted mainly on high educated participants) about climate change and its relationship with the development is very low. Therefore more emphasis should be put to information regarding environmental issues, through education system and awareness campaigns.
This article summarises the partial results of a research project whose basic aim was to propose a Risk assessment Complex model for industrial establishments under the Seveso II Directive in the European Union. The proposed model simplifies the implementation of the Seveso Directive’s obligations within the Slovak Republic. Following the development of the Complex model, the project team analysed approaches, methods and techniques for risk assessment for each phase of the Complex model. The Complex model uses a simple software tool iMotylik which contains 33 bow-tie diagrams for creating scenarios. The Project team then tested the Complex model by applying it to industrial processes in two Seveso establishments in the Slovak Republic.
Although most explosives detection equipment has been focused on explosives based on nitro- compounds because of their using in terrorist attacks interest in the chlorates and perchlorates as a base for explosives dates back to the 18th century when Berthollet attempted to make a powerful gunpowder. Although the main focus has been put for many years for explosives within the group of black powder and mixtures alike it on nitrate as the bearer of oxygen that is required to trigger the explosive decomposition  Later it began to study also the possibility of replacing nitrate by other substances rich in oxygen, which would be also useful for the manufacture of explosives for civil or military use. This group of compounds includes, among others, chlorates, perchlorates, and esthers of hypochlorous, chloric, and perchloric acid. Today, unfortunately, it is not necessary to consider these compounds only in terms of official military or civilian uses, but also in the context of increasing frequency of terrorist attacks the question of the abuse possibility of mentioned salts and esters to such dangerous activities is pushed to the fore. The article deals with the production, physical - chemical properties and the possibility of misuse for terrorist purposes.
The prediction model used for defining fire resistance of reinforced concrete columns exposed to standard fire from all four sides is presented in the paper. The proposed model relies on the concept of artificial neural networks, in which numerical analysis results are used as input parameters. A brief description of the modelling process is given, and an appropriate example of the neural network prognostic model is presented.
This paper presents the numerically achieved results for the fire resistance of several types of floor structures which are mostly used in our residential and rural buildings and in same time fulfill the energy efficient criteria, as: semi-prefabricated reinforced concrete slabs system FERT and STIRODOM (with infill of extruded polystyrene -XPS), timber-concrete composite floor structure and traditional timber floor structure. The solid RC slab was analyzed only for comparison. Using the computer programs SAFIR and FIRE, the effect of the intensity of the permanent and variable actions and the effect of the thermal isolation on the fire resistance of simply supported slabs were analyzed. The fire resistance was defined with respect to the criteria of usability of the structures in fire conditions, according to Eurocodes. Fire spread through the facades is widely recognized as one of the fastest pathways of fire spreading in the buildings. Numerical simulation of external fire on a facade was done. The fire resistance of RC wall, with and without thermal insulation, was defined and the negative effect of the extruded polystyrene, as external insulation, in comparison with the rock wool insulation is presented.
Combustible dusts in food industry are a significant risk, especially with regard to their explosion. Under certain specific circumstances it may occur in food companies very quickly and damage that can be caused by such explosions, mostly climb to huge amounts. Loss of life or injury of workers´ health are no exception. Therefore it is important to pay attention to fire-technical characteristics of combustible food dusts to protect against emergencies as a result of the explosion. The article deals with the characteristics of combustible dusts, especially the fire-technical characteristics, as well as with an explosion protection in food business.
Financial instruments have been recognized as an important mechanism for the disaster risk management in the field of climat change adaptation. This paper analyzes the importance of insurance as a financial instrument for reducing the socio-economic vulnerability of societies to the impacts of natural disasters caused by climate variability. Inovative insurance solutions have been recognized as a chance for developing countries, in their struggle and efforts to reduce poverty and adapt to constant climate variability.
Different emergencies, chronic or acute, such as climate change, as well as the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events caused by climate change, have led to an increase in population vulnerability. Adapting to climate change and a reduction of the influence of catastrophic events on ecosystems has become a focus of interest of various sectorial policies. Education is an important element for decreasing vulnerability to climate change, hazards, and emergencies. At the Faculty of Technical Sciences at the University of Novi Sad, at the educational program Disaster risk management and fire safety, students learn about the multidisciplinary aspects of the field of impact reduction of disastrous events. This paper focuses on the importance of integrating fundamental concepts of disaster risk management into educational systems, and also emphasizing, at the aforementioned academic program, the importance of public health as an important element of building communal resiliency.
In the middle of May 2014, a low-pressure area "Yvette" affected a large area of South-eastern and Central Europe. Some parts of the most affected countries, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and eastern Croatia, experienced a three-months amount of rain in just three days. Since the soil was already saturated due to intensive rainfalls in April and the beginning of May, the later event caused flash floods, erosion and landslides along small watercourses, but also disastrous flooding on right tributaries and the Sava River main course.
The flooding and landslides caused loss of human lives, and high amount of damages, especially to the housing, economic activities and infrastructure. While the damage assessment took place immediately after the flooding, the analysis of the flooding patterns in Serbia is still ongoing.
This paper gives description of the source of flooding, which was an intensive precipitation, of the current state of the analysis of the affected areas in the flooding events in the middle of May at the territory of the Republic of Serbia, and of the follow up activities triggered by this extreme situation.
Natural disasters bring destruction and severe effects in the countries they hit. In small countries like Albania, where the insurance market is underdeveloped, the main role in absorbing disaster effects is often responsibility of the government. In this approach, the government is exposed from a fiscal point of view to the risk of natural disasters. This paper aims to measure the level of fiscal vulnerability in a country like Albania, caused by disasters that time after time hit the region, such as earthquakes or flood. This has been realized by calculating the disaster deficit index for earthquakes and flood, and the annual expected average loss from earthquakes. The results show for a high level of fiscal vulnerability in case of floods with a return period of 100 years and in case of earthquakes with a magnitude higher than 6.5 on Richter scale.
The paper is related to the most significant aspects of numerical simulations in seismic analysis of tunnels, highlighting the soilâ€“structure interaction phenomenon. The modelling of a problem and analysis of relevant influences may be completed by an application of software packages based on the finite element method. In order to define a reliable and efficient numerical model, that should simultaneously put together both the criteria of simplicity and realistic presentation of a physical problem, analyses should start from the most simple modelling techniques (theory of elasticity, replacing the soil medium with elastic springs, pseudo-static analysis), with the final goal to accomplish a more complex and realistic model (theory of elasto-plasticity, finite element method, full dynamic analysis).